Unlucky 13 for The Gunners? FA Cup Final Statistical Preview

Following a disappointing end to the Premier League season Arsenal need to dig deep if they are to win a 13th FA Cup against Champions Chelsea on Saturday.

Both Arsenal and Chelsea finished the season strongly, going on significant winning streaks to close out their respective campaigns.

So what does the form guide suggest will happen when the two teams meet at Wembley?


Chelsea comfortably claimed the Premier League title with two games to spare, ending the season with a 5-1 demolition of relegated Sunderland.

That result completed a six-game unbeaten streak that began following defeat against Man United at Old Trafford in April.

Despite suffering nine defeats this season (four more than Chelsea) Arsenal also pieced together some strong late-season form, winning their final five games in a row.

Ultimately though four more defeats than Chelsea and twice as many draws (six overall), indicates why the Gunners finished the season 18 points behind their rivals.

In the FA Cup, Arsenal have enjoyed a fairly comfortable ride to the final with only a Semi-final encounter against Man City presenting any real challenge.

Chelsea have in contrast faced far sterner tests against Man United and Tottenham in the previous two knock-out rounds.

While Chelsea did run away with the Premier League title this season and excellent form statistics are a given, there are some positives in the numbers for Gunners fans.

Chelsea have scored 11 more goals than Arsenal across the final ten league games of the season, finding the back of the net 29 times.

Strong defense has been a watchword of Chelsea’s season, but Arsenal have also shown a new resoluteness at the back after switching to using three central defenders.

The Gunners have conceded fewer, and kept more clean sheets across the past ten league games, and as a result have stronger defensive form averages than their North London rivals.

KickOff’s algorithm tips Chelsea to win on Saturday (56% probability) and suggests both teams are likely to score (again 56% probability).

A 1-1 draw is the most probable score line (11%) after 90 minutes, with The Blues most likely side to score first.

If there is a clear winner at the end of normal time it’s probably three or more goals will have been scored by the two teams (56% probability).


Many thanks to Joel Turner from KickOff  for the statistical insights.

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