The business end of the season starts here. After an exciting international break, if you are an England fan, the Premier League returns and there is so much to play for still for so many teams. I think there are only two or three teams with nothing to play for really. You could argue that Everton, Bournemouth and Newcastle are safe from relegation but not in a chase for a potential seventh place, that could mean Europa. All the team below them are candidates to join Huddersfield and Fulham in the Championship and all those above are fighting to be the best if the rest, behind the almost inevitable Top 6.
With Man City, having already won the Carabou Cup we know that the teams finishing 5th and 6th will qualify for the Europa and it would be a brave or partisan punter betting against Pep’s team winning the FA Cup. If they do, the team finishing 7th should have a route to Europe and this of course impacts Arsenal as Wolves, Watford and Leicester, who we face away from the Emirates are all in that fight to be the best of the rest.
Therefore, whilst the media are hinting at and easier run in for Emery’s boys, they also know, as do we that our away form has to improve and gain consistency, for Arsenal to claim a Champions League slot for 2019/20 via their league position. We can through in the fact that is Arsenal or Chelsea go on to win the Europa League and one of the four English sides left wins the Champions League, fourth place would not guarantee a place in Europe’s elite competition.
With all that to mull over there is no reason that Arsenal should not be aiming to leapfrog their old Middlesex neighbours and finish third. We cannot meet Chelsea until the Europa Final anyway, with both teams facing tricky quarter and potential semi-finals but for my money, Emery will be telling his team to avoid that lottery and secure qualification by finishing third.
Form and goal difference with Arsenal
The reality is Arsenal have the momentum and confidence with them at present and if results go on form this weekend we could be in third place by Monday evening. If Spurs fail to win at Anfield, which is likely, as Liverpool are simply better than they are and The Gunners beat Newcastle on Monday, Emery’s Arsenal will be in third place and with their destiny in their own hands.
Emery has found a new formula that enables him to field both his potent weapons in attack and his most creative player behind them. I am convinced we will see that line-up again on Monday as the goal scoring form has given Arsenal a huge edge over Man United and Chelsea by widening the goal difference gap over our rivals. If Spurs do lose or draw and Arsenal can put Newcastle to the sword, we will find ourselves with a superior goal difference to Tottenham as well.
Rested and back?
For Monday’s selection, Emery will be sweating on late fitness tests on Ramsey and Xhaka to see who can partner Guendouzi, with Torreira suspended. If both pass fitness tests he may be tempted to start both but with the young Frenchman rested I think it is a case of one of the more experienced players partnering him. If Xhaka’s abductor is up to the job, I suspect his attribute and form get him the nod, with Ramsey available from the bench.
I fully expect the new belief in Emery’s team to see an emphatic win on Monday but we need to start swiftly as we have recently to dent Newcastle’s newfound confidence. I expect this team to deliver three points and extend our goal difference advantage on Monday, buoyed by the knowledge that Spurs have dropped points.
All that said I still believe Emery will tinker with the team and formation in games to come after Monday. We may see a more pragmatic approach away from home with 4231 back in favour, resting using Iwobi and Mkhitaryan, as both are in good form. The truth is he has a good squad of players for the last eight games and he will rotate to keep then on their toes and fresh. Emery has rotated well this campaign and this may have gone unnoticed but barring the long term injuries this has left him with a large squad of fit, quality players, all separately keen to be involved.
Well played Unai!
Passionate fifty-something Arsenal supporter who has been making the journey to N5 regularly since the early 1980s – although his first game was in 1976. Always passionate when talking about The Arsenal, Dave decided to send a guest blog to Gunnersphere in the summer of 2011 and has not stopped writing about the Gunners since.
He set up his own site – 1 Nil Down 2 One Up – in February 2012, which he moved on in 2016 to concentrate on freelance writing and building Gunners Town, which he launched with Paul in 2014.
The objective of GT was to be new and fresh and to give a platform for likeminded passionate Arsenal fans wishing to write about their team. Dave still of course, writes for the site himself and advises the ever-changing writing crew.
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