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Chew on this: how to solve Arsenal’s “Goals Issue” – A Deep Dive (Positives Needs & Hopes)

• Positive Needs & Hopes
January 12, 2024 0

Chew on this

An Arsenal blog from a coach’s perspective

Before I start, three things.

Firstly, my apologies for going AWOL. Prioritizing family and the holiday season. Secondly, I’m going to write this piece in a different format because we’ve come to a point where almost all other analysis is somewhat on pause until we get the elephant out of the room. Finally, we all need a bit of a giggle to change the mood so….. I was just about to pick up my laptop when Max started uncontrollably giggling. I asked him what was up and he said, ” Dad, have you seen this? Jesse Lingard has offered himself to Barcelona.” We had a team giggle. Much needed.

So, Arsenal have got the giggles in front of goal. Maybe they knew about Jesse’s offer to Barcelona and have lost focus? If that’s the reason, I understand. If you think I’ve hit gold then the rest of this article is pointless.

Unlike most I don’t have a one-sided opinion on this subject. I can see many sides to this and I can happily admit that I’m not right. I can wrap my head around many of the opinions I’ve read whether I agree with them or not but yet again, those that have gone down the extreme road, I just scroll on. How you can watch Arsenal go from domestic and European irrelevance to being ranked in the top 5 teams in Europe and want the coach fired, I worry for you. I think those people need some form of therapy. I also think that these people are not watching the game. Mikel Arteta put us in a position to wipe the floor with West Ham and his tactics got us more touches in the box than any team has had this season. The FA Cup game was against the league’s in-form team who are top of the league. We controlled almost the entire game and created plenty of opportunities, not just with our usual methods but creative set free kicks, a new formation that worked and some new runs and more direct ways of creating opportunities that caught them out. The Fulham game was the only game this season where we didn’t control or play well. One game.

The league has not been controlled by any one team. There are likely four teams that can win it and Arsenal, at this moment, are absolutely in it. We are also one of the most feared teams in the Champions League. There is a freshness and added determination about those games and we absolutely have a chance.

If someone would’ve told me three years ago that my club was so highly respected, feared and so greatly improved in so many areas yet after one bad game and three defeats that we should get rid of the architect of all this, well I’m lost for words. Lost for nice words, anyway.

THE GOALS ISSUE

Arsenal have scored 1 goal from 62 shots with an XG of 6.47 in our last three games. Fair to say that we need to be applauded for creating that many. As an example, we had 9 key passes to Liverpool’s 2 after 2/3rds of the FA Cup game. Something is going right. There is however an obvious issue.

Internal

There are so many branches on this tree.

Could Arsenal solve this with the current squad? Well, this group – Havertz + Xhaka and – Rice + Partey got 86 goals last season.  They can do much better. They’ve proven it. Even a little better will get us wins in some games. One of the craziest parts of football is that one goal can change the mood of the whole club. Fans, coaches, players. Would I be surprised if this goalscoring issue was solved by the current team? No. Will they be enough to win the PL or CL? That’s a different question because you can still fix your problems and not win. Unfortunately, there are others trying to win too. So, what can we do to maximise our chances?…..

I was listening to Clive on Arsenal Vision talk about the second guessing that our attackers have started doing. A loss of confidence always leads to players wanting to ‘make sure’ and then they take extra touches. This is normal. As I’ve mentioned many times before, you do training sessions where the players only have two touches or even one touch and they have to shoot from every pass given. Pass, shoot, regain, pass, shoot etc… They start to believe and whether the experience or coaching prods them to remember the importance of your hips facing the right way in the box and that your first touch should always be a shot, a pass or a touch that sets up a shot, players discover. If one of these are your choice then you will rarely go wrong. A dribble, passing the buck or the modern irritant of passing it out of the box to keep possession are all a distant second best. Arsenal for over half my life have treated the penalty area like they have the rest of the field and risk taking or taking the opportunity presented has been subservient to finding the best alternative.

If it were me I’d change the mentality at Arsenal. The mentality inside the box. You are almost always greatly outnumbered. If you were playing a keep away game of 3 v 7 you would have to insist on a high level of creativity in order for the 3 to keep the ball from the 7. That is the average situation that teams face in the box. Three v Seven.

The switch has to be flipped inside that box. You have to realize that you are likely greatly outnumbered so you need to remember to bring creativity with you into that space. Be completely unafraid to miss. They need to know that you might make a mistake in shooting but if you don’t try you make a mistake in not even trying and one of those options never leads to a goal. If your attackers make runs that are easy to track then 3 v 7 remains 3 v 7. If you use deception then 3 v 7 looks like 6 v 7 or even 8 v 7, as a player who has separated himself from the defenders should score. Same with a trick, change of pace, something creative to change the odds. When I played I made a habit of fake shooting. I saw a player open in the box and drew his defender towards me or froze them by winding up to shoot. I’d commit many and I’d give it to my teammate. My career is certainly not the model, but just an example.

 

Eddie One

Credit: Arsenal.com

The other way to do this is to sell Eddie. I’d sell him now whilst his value is fairly high and use the money to purchase his replacement, which in my mind is a second choice striker in the long term. I’d look to spend a medium amount of money which equates to no more than 50M for a second choice striker on an elite team.
In the summer, this new striker and the signing of  a first choice striker become the two options and Jesus moves to a wing option or left eight as I’ve recommended previously. Thanks to Arteta and his intelligent building of a versatile squad, there are a multitude of in-house options.
Trossard as a false nine has value. Havertz as a nine has a different kind of value. Jesus, when he’s fit adds the most, and as infuriated as I get by Eddie, he might be the best finisher of the lot. Interestingly, when you look at my description of what I would want in the center forward, then you might see Martinelli as a reflection. Ever since he arrived at Arsenal, I’ve been intrigued to see him play center forward. Hunger might be the best adjective to describe him and it isn’t easy to find top strikers in world football that have his level of hunger. His finishing is ordinarily good and he offers the aerial threat and sharp movement. If I was Mikel I would try him there dependent on game state in January. We might find that he is actually the exact profile that we are looking for. I’m sure the coaching staff feel that teaching a player a brand new position is a lot to ask when you’re trying to win the league and the Champions League, though. He would have to slide into the groove pretty quickly for this to be the answer this season anyway.As we are well aware of more than most your goals do not necessarily have to come from the center forward. There is a very strong argument for switching Saka and Martinelli during games regardless of the need for goals. You might not get as many goals from them, but you put them on their strong foot to deliver crosses more accurately for those crashing the box. I might argue with myself also and say that if you could get the ball to them quickly before they transitioned out wide, then they would be in an optimal position to beat the defender on the outside and shoot on their favorite foot. Regardless of the solution, I think this should be tried. Another option is Jesus out wide. He seems to favor going left and is a menace on the dribble in the box but played his wide minutes at City on the right. Currently, the finish is the problem but focusing more on putting players on their favorite foot in wide areas would add to the big chances that we are creating, even though it might not add to the amount. A higher quality of chance always helps.Like many, I would like to see Saka and Martinelli moving inside and closer to goal, as we are not optimally using them. We are more than capable of this, because the rotational understanding of our current attackers is already there. They just need to rotate more often because both have value as the dribbler as much as they do as the finisher.
Again, as I’ve stated previously, I think that our season might actually rest on getting Saka off the wing. He is just far easier to foul further from goal because defenders aren’t as afraid at giving free kicks in the areas that he is picking the ball up in. His absence from the team with our current squad could put a nail in the coffin and so I would love to see him play as the left eight with Odegaard to the other side. That means signing a winger or changing formation. There are options there too.

Untrusted players
Let’s start with Trossard. He has been trusted and given ample opportunity. He seems to blow fire-hot or lukewarm. I’d love to know what his magic switch is.
Nelson must have little confidence. He is only trusted once in a while and not like Trossard. I have a theory that this is because he doesn’t understand his defensive responsibilties and so makes Arteta nervous. Just a theory though.
Smith Rowe is a mystery. Is it extra careful management of a fragile body? Is it based on a lack in training? We have to acknowledge that we only see and will only ever know part of what we think we know. If all is well with ESR then I would include him with the same opportunities for minutes as the first team players get. Not only is he good but he is calm and efficient in front of goal. His style of play is also different and would offer opponents a new look to contend with from us. A player that passes and moves at speed.
Smith Rowe celebrates
Fabio Vieira has vanished but there is clear talent and creativity there.
The Academy talents are being brought through slower than many would like. Again, trust is needed. We only see a tiny percentage of what they are doing. The other truth is that we think about what they can do on the ball when we dream. Arteta has to be concerned with off the ball which is about 90% of what their job is when they get out there as a 90 minute performance averages at 2.5 minutes of touching the ball for each player. His specifics in positioning and where to be when are unlike when we play or played.

External

I am certainly in the camp that Arsenal need a new striker. I’ve been in this camp for quite a while. This is not a result based thought. If you read regularly, you will know that I think that Arsenal leave goals on the table because they don’t have a striker with hunger in the penalty area and with a true aerial threat.
Should Arsenal get that striker now? Well, as I’ve said above, we did rather well last season with the attackers that we currently have. The fact that we didn’t win the league wasn’t on them. Arsenal need to be careful though. Ideally, they need to find a striker with these two main characteristics and get him on loan. The financial rules of the league are going to prohibit us from signing the two or three positions that we have equal need of. So If we had money to spend, then I most certainly like the Amadou Onana rumor. I would have an issue if that was the only arrival though. Versatile defender is needed and it looks like a left back is the priority. Spinazzola sounds like the most likely candidate to be a loan purchase from Roma as a left back. The absolute ideal loan signing would be Olivier Giroud. He would have to push for this because he is still getting regular starting minutes at Milan.
Recall Grioud
Giroud has been my choice for quite a while now. Until we have OR are allowed to spend the 100,000,000+ on a striker, then we need a player who is happy to be short term. Giroud has no choice because of his age and I’m sure would fully understand being on the bench as much as the field. My selection is an intelligent one, I think. A player who did not achieve the heights at Arsenal previously who would be very hungry to get a Premier League and a Champions League medal. He most certainly checks the need for an aerial threat that we have, and his movement to the front post is elusive and better than what we currently have. Ultimately, I would want a first choice striker who has the hunger of a wolf in the penalty area. Moreover, he would offer a rare gravitational pull that would hopefully siphon attention away from the wingers and open up games. The opposition would be faced with a set of increasingly-bad choices.

The idea of a winger signing might be the solution. Taking away which position is making us most nervous due to absences, often teams go on to win trophies in the second half of the season because they purchased a player in January who was a ‘spark.’ That is exactly the word that describes what Arsenal need right now. A spark. It could come in the form of a winger or somewhere else but when I look at Pedro Neto in particular, and the electricity that comes off his boots when he accelerates, I would be tempted to throw what money I had in that basket. A spark wouldn’t just ignite competition out wide, but it would give our wingers a chance to rest and also play further in field. You can’t forget the 12th man also. Energy from the stands this season hasn’t been quite like last season. In fact, there’s been a marked drop-off. Many games will be won throughout the league and the Champions League in the last part of the season due to the intimidation of the home crowd. As far back as I can remember if you had a player that would get the crowd up off their feet then people arrive at the stadium energized to watch this player and stay energized. Any time the ball goes near him. Pedro Neto is exactly this type of player.

Stone throwing
I think it’s simple. If you want to throw stones at the club for not buying a striker/winger in the summer and/or prioritizing other positions then you need to show that you had that opinion at the beginning of September. Personally, I was ‘concerned.’ So, if I start throwing stones the size of boulders at the club then I would not respect my opinion, if I was you. I looked at the addition of Havertz as a help in midfield and the aerial threat we needed in the box. I thought it was a clever signing. What transpired was a longer transition than we thought mixed with a problem that still hasn’t been fixed.  Havertz makes endless runs behind the defence and into the box and rarely do we even consider him. That’s an actual reality.
I think it’s fair to wish for a striker this January, but the thought that Arteta and Edu need to be fired if they don’t is embarrassing. I would imagine that they want to win the league as much as we do and probably more. They have overseen the quickest rebuild in the clubs history and deserve our full trust. I’m sure they are acutely aware of the goals issue but both of them will want the right player, not any player. If the right one is available and doesn’t screw up summer plans and if money is available to make it happen, I think we can rest in the fact that these two gentlemen are not stupid. If they bless us with a new striker and we lose Rice or Zinchenko, then the same loudmouths will start getting their boulders out and rolling them towards N5.
This window is like a game of risk. Due to PL rules we can’t spend money that we might have or we become Everton and get deducted points. We are short at winger, full back, centre back, striker and midfield. Unless the loan fairy decides to over bless us with elite players that cost nothing then whichever need we leave empty is open for criticism. So, get your anger in now and then you can be one of the annoying ‘told you so’ Twitterati’s that have an addiction to being right, and on the odd occasion that they are, want you to know what a genius they are.
Fair darts
If there are some darts that are fair to throw at Arteta then here are a few questions I often ponder….
Ethan Nwaneri

Nwaneri

1) It seems that he picks his bench based on a hierarchy. I’d love to see Cozier Duberry given some opportunities so we don’t have to flog Saka. I like Elneny in certain situations but many games his bench presence isn’t needed. I’d love to see Lewis-Skelly get these opportunities. When Vieira comes back I’d imagine that he will be a bench regular. I’d love for Arsenal to make their mind up on him quickly because Nwaneri is quite special and the carrots will be constantly dangling for him elsewhere attached with promises of more than we are offering.
Walters and Sousa. Well, If we trust Cedric then play him. If we don’t then use one of these two as regular bench options. If Cedric’s upset, that’s ok. If he’s mature and team minded, he will understand, as will Elneny.
I’m not suggesting that you start any of these players. I would simply replace some of the ‘untrusted’s’ with these Academy players on a regular basis. Then I’d be actively looking for opportunities to dangle our carrot in front of them by letting them play for let’s say, 15 minutes. These five players aren’t just good. Three or four of them are potential Arsenal players which gives them the tag ‘elite potential.’ Whether we or Arteta likes it or not, players kind of rule. If they get a better offer they either leave, head turns, sulk or the rare few accept it. In this scenario I would hate for Arsenal to lose a player like Nwaneri knowing that they will soon sell Vieira and yet Vieira gets in the squad but is now leaving/left. Then Arteta gets an agent text saying that Nwaneri has a better offer elsewhere and so Arteta likely regrets giving opportunities to players he really didn’t trust.
Conclusion
I don’t think that Arteta will do what I’ve concluded. He is Mikel Arteta and I’m Mike McDonald and I’d trust the educated one.
I think it’s also fair to state that I /we see lets say 50% of what he sees, so our opinion has to offer up that asterix. I’ve cobbled together a team with alternate options, below. It doesn’t include Eddie Nketiah. I think we should sell him this month. I’d attempt to get loan deals for Giroud, Spinazzola and Varane. Spinazzola makes all kinds of sense. He is 30 and in his prime. Quick, experienced and I’m sure motivated to win as his career tails away. There is another left back that in theory is perfect if we are trying to push Martinelli inside. You need an overlapping left back with top level delivery. After researching, it was Max that found the hidden gem with quite incredible stats. Twelve assists and 9.67 expected assists. His name is Alvaro Barreal and he plays left back for FC Cincinnati. I strongly advise you to watch this video. An absolute hidden gem who is technically excellent and has a very impressive record with free kicks too, and we need that.
United are trying to offload some of their dissatisfied older players who are on high wages. Varane would go from the no-mans land of United to potentially winning again this season. He would be a super mentor for his national team prodigy in Saliba. He could cover us at Centre Back by taking some of Saliba and Gabriel’s minutes before they break, like Saliba did last season. I’m sure the club would be ok with paying his elevated salary for 4 months before they buy a CB in the summer.
I would try to sign Amadou Onana using the Eddie money. He has got the largest toolbox of any young central midfielder that I’ve seen in a while. A massive disruptive figure in midfield and a threat going forward too. He can carry the ball too which we need. Saka and Martinelli are not bering fully used as through ball options as only Rice carries from deep and his ‘deep’ is traveling from the other half of the field. Too much to expect him to regularly carry the ball 50 yards. This is a hard call as going for a winger brings that spark but I’d bank on the energy from fixing multiple short term problems to give the fans a renewed belief. Also, getting Giroud and actually playing ESR would be ‘spark’ enough. Jesus could rotate wide too which offers a new exciting look that we’ve seen little of. Signing a DM also takes the risk away from burning Rice out which, like Saliba, is a game changer.
I’d wait on Neto and an elite striker until we have access to the big money in the summer. If we couldn’t get Varane, I’d attempt to do a loan with obligation for Inacio who can cover CB and DM as he’s played both. So, only money spent on Onana.
Osimhen
When the summer comes around I’m looking at Oshimen and Zirkzee as our two striker options. Neto or maybe the wonderfully gifted Antonio Nusa as a new winger. They would ignite our attack that is starting to look a little stale.
For now, check out this line up. It is my adjusted line up with current players only.
Arsenal 4-3-3
I’m confident that something will change as with the return of KDB and the emergence of Phil Foden as twice the play as a 10, Arsenal will have no choice.
The second half of the season is where coaches make the biggest difference. Arsenal have been figured out by a few teams so far. Time for some of our versatility to come to the fore with some sneaky changes.

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