Total Chaos
I’ve seen a lot of talk about who’s going to start and in what position. Is Timber going to start in place of White? Is Havertz replacing Xhaka or is that what Rice is coming in to do? Will ESR be rotation for Odegaard or Martinelli? I don’t think that question is enough, because you now also need to ask where will people start, who will they interchange with and what will the post-game heatmap actually show? With Timber, Havertz and Rice in the building, our options and interchangeability will make us the most unpredictable team in the league. Where Pep would often change formation several times in the game, I think Mikel aims to take a similar, highly adjustable approach by having players who can constantly switch positions in order to confuse the opposition and create total chaos.
To throw my two cents in, this is how I think we’ll line up at the start of the season;
However, as the games come thick and fast we’ll see ESR rotate in for Martin or Kai, we’ll see Partey and Jorginho get minutes in midfield and Trossard pop up on the left. I’ll also be interested to see whether Timber comes in for White with a Zinchenko-like role, allowing us to play KT if we’re facing a particularly tricky winger on our left. This would allow us to keep our extra man in midfield but shore up our left side. It’s also why I’ll be surprised if we sell KT. Think back to the game at Anfield last season, Arteta wanted to shore up our left side and he knew Tierney would do that.
The truth however is that no-one knows how we’re going to line up, but I think that’s the point. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Havertz running onto a through ball in the penalty area provided from deep by Jesus, then squaring it to Timber to score. I have no idea where Saka, Martin or Martinelli would be in this scenario and again, I think that’s the point. One of the issues we faced last season was predictability. That issue is gone (along with a lack of squad depth).
Breaking lines
Wingers and full backs carry the ball (think Saka and Martinelli). Midfielders tend to pass through the lines (you didn’t see Xhaka making many dribbles through the centre last season). One of our issues in the second half of last season was that we became stretched (without Bill Saliba) and the passes into our ball carriers became longer and as a result were easier to cut off or intercept. City in particular have wingers and full backs who can deal with opposition wingers/full backs but there aren’t many central midfielders who carry the ball to break lines consistently and successfully. That’s why midfielders like Odegaard, Havertz and Rice are so valuable. Your positioning to cut off a passing line and then press is untenable if the players you’re facing break the line with the ball at their feet. In the (admittedly basic) picture below the opposition players 4 and 7 are pressing Rice whilst cutting off passing lines further afield. Normally in this scenario a safe pass backwards or to the side is used to retain the ball and start again. However players like Rice and Havertz can carry the ball through the press and the opposition first line, and then attack their back line directly.
In a game scenario this will allow more through balls for Saka/Martinelli to run onto in more central, dangerous areas in between full back and centre back, rather than a pass into them out wide where they still have their full back and possibly their opposing winger to take on (for example Odegaard’s pass to Martinelli against the MLS team). In Jesus/Eddie’s case it means they can be on the shoulder of the last defender more. I fully expect Eddie to particularly thrive with this set-up this coming season, as he is the more natural finisher from these positions.
Expectation more than hope
Ultimately my hope and expectation for this season is that we’ll retain the ball even better, attack with more potency and also win the ball back faster when we lose it. I’m not convinced that City have improved so far (although the transfer window is young). If anything they may even be a little weaker so 90+ points is still the target. I believe that the additions we’ve made, plus the extra season’s experience are worth at least 6 points, so a crack at the title is on, and who knows, maybe even a chance in the Champions League.
I’m a lifelong Arsenal fan. I got my first kit at 3 years old and my dad put a nail in my wall and hung it there rather than in my wardrobe. Mum was furious.
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