XG building: Arsenal shake things up (Positives Needs & Hopes) [ARS 2-0 WOL]

XG Building

An Arsenal blog from a coach’s perspective

Firstly, apologies for the delay in writing. The plan this weekend was to drive to DC to watch the Arsenal ladies, not have my car give out on me and spend $600 on being disappointed. I’m still reeling from the weekend, so this will be shorter this week, which is probably an improvement anyway.

Saturday’s game was bits and pieces. Forgettable. Fine. A little nerve wracking. Just a little. It was also revealing. Until September, you can’t really get a full picture of what the team is trying to do unless you pay super close attention because rust is being scraped away and fluidity hasn’t introduced itself yet.

I noticed a few things that have been improved upon. One of them makes me smile because it was an emphasis when I coached at a high level. Quick set plays. Youth and college sports are easier to take advantage of because there is less structure and more off-cuff, so I’d spend at least a full training session in pre-season on quick set plays. I’d teach my striker to wander uninterested to the goal line when we had a throw in the final third. You can’t be offside from a throw in and so we won many games when the opponent wasn’t even looking. They were still turned the other way, running back when we’d throw the ball into the box for the ‘uninterested striker’ to suddenly become interested again.

I told them to never bend over to place a free kick because you lose most of your vision. Place it with your boots and pass it forwards quickly. See Arsenal’s second goal. If a throw in provided no options, throw it to a player and get him to one touch it back to the thrower because he was the only player facing the field.

Free kicks outside the box should always be hit when the keeper goes to his post to set his wall because some refs would give it out of confusion or simply great acting on my teams part as they wheel away as if it’s ‘obviously’ a goal. If the ref didn’t like it, he lets you do it again. Bargain. Why not, right?

I noticed that we are sending more players into the box now but varying who goes, in order to confuse opponents.

I noticed new passing exits out of the back.

I noticed quicker switches to Saka.

I noticed a new build up formation.

I noticed that the starting line up was strong but I have a feeling that one signing is going to move two players at least.

The most obvious spot was the emphasis on building our XG. I’m just too tired to search Twitter for proof and after one game, it wouldn’t be proof anyway. What I will say is that it was clear that we are trying to make our offensive game more unpredictable and certainly, harder to stop.

An Arsenal goal over the years has been a) normally artistic, b) always intentional, c) rarely just from a random ball into the box, d) almost never in the 6 yd box, e) rarely from outside the box, f) rarely from a quick break, g) normally from the right side, h) rarely a header from open play and i) often from a cutback.

Against Wolves, our first goal was a pinpoint cross to our 6ft 3 in striker (should’ve been utilizing this earlier). Havertz is starting to become more unpredictable in his runs. He is sometimes making two runs to the front post, between the centre backs or at the back post. He has stopped stopping which was a hindrance before because Odegaard, Rice and others were in the same PK spot area.

We were seeing long range shots. quicker shots and for Saka’s goal, a near post fireball where his last half dozen have been curled to the back post. As mentioned before, quick throw ins and free kicks. There were clear efforts to break out with speed that were largely unsuccessful but it’s the intent we are looking for. The left side has been an improvement in pre season and I think if Merino ever arrives we will see more success in the connections in that area. The set plays are a twist on a theme each week.

What was familiar and what separates us from others was that both goals came from coaching. Our coaches are just better and they are never going to tell you this because they are preaching humility to the players and so can’t slap each others backs in public, but I can. Ait-Nouri is a super attacking full back but an average 1 v 1 defender. We got the ball to Saka early so he could exploit the fact the Ait-Nouri gives you space to cross and jockeys with his feet too close, allowing a quick ball shift and shot.

There has even been the Saka back post header which currently looks like a 0.03 expected goal from a 0.7 XG, but I applaud the desire to improve and vary.

The fundamental point is that Arsenal are built differently. We don’t have a guarantee of a 20+ goal a season striker so what we are doing is encouraging as it will continue to move us intelligently in. the direction of our strength which is a reliance in ALL over ONE.

POSITIVES:

Saka:

I am definitely in the camp of Saka under appreciation. He has the ‘Santa Claus affect’ on me. Santa arrives and we are expecting something great. Not good. Great. If he gives us an etch a sketch then we boo. A bike, but a Strika from 1984 then we think it’s cool but not what we wanted. If he gives us a Play Station 9 then we are ditching Christmas lunch and getting the boys over for some squad building action.

I still believe, so don’t spoil it for me.

Arsenal are lucky in that they have had a few like Saka. I won’t go through the list because you know the biggest. I just want to acknowledge that not only is he an output monster but he is constantly improving his game. That is no doubt due to his humility. The best of all qualities for an athlete. His ball striking is getting cleaner as well as his unpredictability. No longer can defenders just block him going left and get a clap but have to be aware that he has roofed a few having gone right.

Saka deserves all the murals 🙂 This one is almost complete on Holloway Rd.

Crossing:

Nobody seems to be talking about the quality of the crossing. Well, I am. Here goes…. For over a year now all three of Martinelli, Saka and Trossard are sending in the best types of crosses. No floating and allowing the keeper to have catching practice or lame front post crosses that get volleyed out. They are about 7ft high, hit at speed and with whip and are heading towards the back side of the goal. The keeper has a conundrum. If he goes to cover his back post he might be caught out by a header. The defenders have less time to muscle the attacker as well as head it out, due to the speed of the cross. It’s too low for the keeper to come, so he’s just waiting and not thinking happy thoughts.

Martinelli is the best at it and doesn’t get credit. Saka was hyped for his assist but Martinelli regularly produces high XG crosses. This area of the game is yet another that Arteta is trying to perfect. Other teams just ‘cross the ball’ rather than consider the type of cross.

Resting Saka:

Whether we see Martinelli taking Saka minutes or Transfer McStepOver getting to start over Saka, I’d say that one of the most important changes this season has to be Saka not starting every game. If he was 31 we could run his legs off but I’d imagine there is a strong chance he wants to be a one club man, so if we want his prime to be at 27 and not sitting on the bench drinking Prime with 1.5 ankles left, then now is the time. It’s not just Arteta that has had trust issues but Emery and Wenger did too. I’ve often wondered how good Nelson could be if he was given a run. Never happened. I know he hasn’t always helped himself but I’d imagine that Saka has a limited warranty rather than a lifetime one.

Zinchenko:

A better game all around. It was his defending, especially his aggression, intelligence and anticipation that gave hope for a better version of a very talented player. On another thought, if I was a reporter I’d ask Mikel why Zinchenko can’t take some of Odegaard’s minutes or at left eight too? I know Arteta would question dodge, but you never know.

Raya:

Like Saka, he rarely gets flowers for things that other keepers find difficult to hold consistency in. His hands are so soft. So clean. His technique is faultless. Seems like a really serious professional. His save from Larsen was within his reach without technically diving but it was the speed that he reacted at. Others wouldn’t have bothered.

Partey in the 90’s:

Why was Thomas given 90 minutes? Probably a question for a sports science expert but it seemed very intentional and very much an athletic test. His first half was special but he was fading technically and physically and Jorginho was winking at Arteta. I assume he is being tested before the window closes to see if he can either become supremely fit or break and be replaced.

NEEDS:

Tempo v Confidence:

Are Arsenal intentionally playing in 3rd gear? I know it’s game 1, but the last two pre-season games were played in 5th gear from the first minute. Just wondering if they were told to step off against teams we should beat because we can’t play high energy all the time. Even though Wolves are well coached and we are the best defensive team, we seemed to unnecessarily give them 20 minutes of confidence

Rice at L8:

This is not a firm thought, just wondering. This could be about to be fixed if Merino comes in and starts at left eight and Rice goes back to DM. I just see that Rice is arguably the world’s best defensive DM and he plays left eight. He obviously contributes a huge amount defensively anyway but as much as we are trying to improve him as a creative player, could we not improve his progressive passing so he replicates Partey and becomes the full package? At the same time, I fully believe that he will keep improving at left eight and become a greater offensive threat, but I’m just wondering if it’s unnecessary.

Counters and Saka:

I still pine for Saka to run behind more. Especially on counter attacks. He holds his position wide but this somewhat sideways pass is giving more defenders time to get behind the ball. If Saka came a little more narrow and pointed for a ball behind then we score a simpler goal.

Ref:

This ref made a litany of mistakes. I’m writing this on Tuesday so totally unemotional. He was fooled by the rotational fouling, but most are. Havertz should have had a penalty after 9 minutes because it was one of those simple free kicks if outside the box. Saka’s penalty appeal is the same. Would’ve been a free kick.

The other incident with Havertz was embarrassing. There was no need for him to plant his hand on his neck, let alone keep it there for 3 seconds. If the other players could see what he was doing there would’ve been a big pushing and shoving match and then an easy red card. The problem is actually the VAR person. He sees it. Probably 5 times. The fact that he doesn’t tell the ref to give a red or go to the screen, is an absolute giggle. Then you compare to the head tap that got Schar sent off for Newcastle and you see the need for a rule change. Tapping your head on another player could be a yellow for provocation but is in no way violent. It reminds me of me describing a fight that I saw ‘at the rec last night’ to my mates on the bus the next morning when I was 15. ” You should’ve seen the head butt!! There was blood everywhere!!” “No there wasn’t, Donut (my nickname). They just tapped heads.” Schar should’ve been given a yellow for provocation and the Saints player that embellished the tap should’ve been given a yellow too.

I’m like Scrappy Doo when it comes to wanting to change the rules in football. “Let me at ’em, let me at ’em!”

HOPES: 

Isak:

Are the lack of rumours  re; strikers and wide players because we have been given encouragement that Isak might be available next season? He isn’t my first choice, although I’d be thrilled if we got him because he is top quality as well as covering both positions, but I do wonder if he is Arsenal’s first choice. I still have a feeling that we will try to get Raphinha on loan and if we sign Gyokeres then I’m going to party like Prince wanted me to 25 years ago.

Madueke:

There are rumours that a PL side is trying to get Madueke. Again, not my first choice but certainly a good player. Chelsea have to loan or sell at least 10 players. I do wonder if Arteta trusts himself with Mudryk? I bet he does and if he could work his magic as he has with so many others, then if ‘threat’ is what we lack, then this chap has a bucket of it, if it can be unearthed. There is Sterling of course. I like Sterling and I like that he would understand Arsenal as he came from City. I wouldn’t like the wages but that would go for any Chelsea player.

Not sure why I’m spending my time looking out west when I don’t truly want any of them.

Todd Boehly must be a stubborn man who doesn’t take advice. Surely someone has tried to tell him that it’s football, not football. I could say so much about how they are running and ruining players careers but I don’t care enough so I’ll just mention that giving a modern 2024 man a 9 year contract on massive money will suck the motivation out of most of them because the modern player is spoilt and now you’ve indulged his spoilt nature.

If you want to giggle at Chelsea a little more there is a wickedly funny Arsenal twitter account @boodsbants that creates absolutely hilarious videos about the size of Chelsea’s squad. Strongly recommended.

SCOUT MAX:

Max says to keep an eye on Wolves’ new centre forward, Jorgen Strand Larsen. Built with an identical frame to Haaland but not yet been blessed to play for a good team in order to boost his 1 goal in 3 ratio. His two runs to open up space for the header that Raya saved was exactly what Arsenal lack. I often wonder if players like him, Calvert Lewin, Awoniyi etc.. are actually good enough for a team like Arsenal but play for teams that create one chance for them per game rather than the 4 or 5 we would.

FINAL THOUGHT:

I think I expect too much from Arsenal. Judging based on capability will do that to you. If I was Arteta then that would be different because I want to push elite players who are capable of more.

It was only part way through the game when I started moaning and Max gave me the ‘chill out Dad’ look. The screen flashed up 14 shots to 3 and I could only remember one of the three. I haven’t had time to rewatch the game but I will do when I get home. Rewatching is vital for analysis as it’s largely emotionless and our emotions lie to us.

Arsenal were just fine for the first game. Gary O’Neill is a rather good tactician and not an easy game. We forget that the opponent sometimes stops us doing what we’d planned, which sounds silly, but hyper focus on our capabilities ignores the fact that they have likely been spending 3 of their 5 days of preparation trying to work out how to nullify one of the best teams in Europe.

Finally, what a super picture!

Mike McDonald

Former Highbury regular. Moved to TN, USA in ’99. Married with 3 kids. Coached in UK and US for 27 years.
Mike McDonald Soccer Academy in Morristown TN, Olympic Development coach, Regional Premier League Champion.