‘The joy of predictability’ (Positives Needs & Hopes) [ARS 2-0 BHA] EFL Cup

‘The joy of predictability’

An Arsenal blog from a coach’s perspective

I pondered whether to write about this game. Why? It was exactly how I thought it would be. ‘No news here’ kind of thing.  Not in a dull way though. In a quite delightful way.

Here is how it played out;

1. Arteta starts his second string, really for the first time, against strong opposition in the Cup. In the past he didn’t trust them fully and would play a mix of 1st and 2nd choice. The whole point of the summer was to change the need for games like this. For Arteta to be able to feel that he can start Dowman and Norgaard and that he wouldn’t be throwing the game away. It wasn’t just Arteta though. I saw a bunch of fans giving their predicted line ups and they were almost all second string with the exception of those that had to play because there weren’t enough second string fit. We all felt that we could beat Brighton at home with this eleven, even if they played their best players. On the chart of quality that I’m just now making up, Brighton are a team of ‘very good’ players who play with a similar confidence to Arsenal. Arsenal’s second string are a mix of ‘very good’ and ‘top class’ players. The first team has at least 9 ‘elite’ players.
2. Andre Harriman-Annous (these double barrel names are getting crazier), was the one we all missed. The fact that he played is more to do with the ‘top class’ ability of the others than his ability. I think we would all agree that when we saw him on the team sheet, we didn’t complain because much like VG for most of the season, we have been winning without his goals. Blend that thought with the fact that VG has had more sprints than any other player in the squad this season, so the small risk in starting AHA was eliminated by the greater need for VG to have a nap.
3. Individually, Kepa, White, Mosquera, MLS, Norgaard, Nwaneri and Merino all played because they will always be good enough to play Brighton at home. Eze played because somebody had to play left wing and LT has played more minutes. Hincapie found this game show up at the perfect time in his recovery. Dowman starting is well, let’s talk about Max Dowman……
4. I said to Max pre-game that he would be man of the match. That award was created for players like him. The player that catches the eye because he has the hardest job, but has the ability to make it look easier than it is. What an unreal compliment it is to a boy gearing up for trick or treating, that I knew he would stand out. The full back he was playing against was being chased by Europe’s elite this summer, Arsenal included. It isn’t just pace and power that gives Dowman an advantage though. It is that he has the ‘Saka disease’ of great decision making. He chose the exact right times to use that superior power and pace. If you watch in slo-mo, he pushes it past De Cuyper’s feet when the full backs feet are in the air. It is impossible to change your pace when both feet are momentarily in the air. Only Superman can do that or the Silver Surfer or Black Panther or the Hulk. Probably not The Hulk.
5. Predictably, BHA started well and created plenty enough to go ahead as Arsenal might have had a group of  ‘top class’ players but they had never played together so the invincibility and ‘you can’t even get in our box’ thing was too much to ask. The multiple needless give aways were for the same reason. Players not connected.
6. Again predictably, Arteta fixed this at half time and the storm door was erected and just like Gloria Estefan warned us in 1987, ‘The rhythm is gonna get you.’
7. I called the goal a few minutes before it went in. Ethan received a square ball on the top of the box and it was hit too hard to hit first time. I told Max that the next player would fix it, because that’s what Arsenal do and Myles duly did.
8. Then the big dogs came on and showed their level. Almost as if they wanted to prove that they are ‘top class’  and a level above.
9. And then the game ended 2-0. As it should. This new Arsenal with the best depth in the history of ever aren’t the same Carabao Arsenal. In fact, this Carabao Arsenal are going to win the Cup simply because we are going to be in a commanding lead in the league and even if we aren’t, our second string are better than most first strings, if first strings is even a term.
10. Finally, before we saw the highlights of the other games I told Max that ‘Joelinton has probably nailed someone.’ I then proceed to Twitter to see him commit domestic abuse on Kudus who then started a brawl and rightly so.

The pundits have got one thing right. Arsenal ARE predictable. Predictably serious and predictably good.

POSITIVES:

Dowman:

Ok, I’ve decided to post my real thoughts to the mast. I think everyone sees that he is ‘special.’ I’m not saying that I WOULD play him a whole lot more because that is somewhat of an insult towards the other wingers who have done exactly what is required. This whole discussion is not ever going to be complete unless you are on the inside. The teenager might be petrified before he goes out in front of 60,000. He might be too hard on himself. He could be utterly confused as to where he has to stand defensively. We can’t be sure from where we are. What I want to state is that I would ALWAYS have him on the bench.

I would best describe Max Dowman as ‘the most likely.’

I’m not including Saka in this and probably not Madueke either, but amongst the other options, I am. He is the ‘most likely’ to get by his man with ease. To get away from a tight marker. To accelerate and not get caught. To beat his man completely in a multitude of ways. To get a penalty kick. To make the difference as an individual if the team is struggling to do it collectively. The Palace game at the weekend was almost the perfect example. Until Eze scored, Palace looked capable of denying us a goal. Max Dowman was not on the bench and although it’s not a problem now, that was the kind of game that he was very close to being needed for. Saka was sick too so we didn’t have his usual threat, either. I have much admiration for Trossard and Martinelli and even Madueke. It’s totally possible to think that they are good enough for Arsenal, doing very well, but also think that Dowman is a bigger threat. This is not an emergency and not a complaint. Everything is going swimmingly and perhaps the smart thing is not to rock the boat right now, but I would definitely have him on every bench. When the NLD comes around, the days of not upsetting senior players is over anyway because two or three of them aren’t going to make the 18 with the return of Havertz, Odegaard and Madueke. The inevitable is coming down the road. I’m hoping that Arteta uses this time to give players a true ‘rest.’ Not dropped but ‘bench vacation,’  ‘couch vacation’ or ‘actual vacation.’

Every game needs a different solution, but being able to leave your opponent in the dust is never not one of these solutions. I was watching Eze trying to beat his man and how he found it much harder. When he did, his opponent was still hanging all over him. When Dowman beats his man, he stays beat and another defender or six has to take up the task.

I was chatting about England’s options with Max. If it were me, I’d start playing him and Saka on the wings with a view to him being comfortable to feature in the World Cup. Gordon, Rashford, Grealish and even Eze are all good options, but I think that Dowman threat is greater and when it’s the highest of the high levels, World Cup’s are won because somebody was unstoppable.

AHA:

Well done, that man! He can clearly do a little of everything and is flexible to be a wide option, also. Listening to Mikel he was chosen because of his attitude more than anything else. I think back to players who are now appearing in the Baller League, like Jay Emmanuel Thomas. Players that had the talent to break into lesser Arsenal teams, but whose ‘too much, too young’ got in the way and they didn’t. The list is huge, especially flair players. I think of forgotten players like Xavier Amaechi who was so similar to Nwaneri, but ended up going from Hamburg to Karlsruhe to Bolton and now Plymouth in League One.

The Merino moment:

Everybody loved that goal, especially the back heel. Especially because it came from a player that we see as a little too predictable. I think Merino can do more than he is doing at Arsenal. Much like Xhaka under Wenger, he is playing a role. A role where he I supposed to play simplistically and be a huge off ball threat in the box. I think he could dictate play like Zubimendi does or be more expansive like Rice.

Kepa:

I feel very appreciative of him. Almost too good to be a back up for anyone. He was the biggest reason that we won but never going to be the headline grabber because saves born out of bravery don’t attract headlines like flying Raya does.

Timber:

I have no idea how many assists or expected assists he has since he became a big attacking threat but it’s lots. His run for the second goal was so very impressive but his weighted pass was better because most players can’t slow a pass down whilst running at that speed.

NEEDS:

Norgaard:

He needs to scan. I know he made a few mistakes but he is an experienced player that needs to be braver. Everything was safe which is kind of fine for a DM, but not for a DM on this particular version of Arsenal.

HOPES:

Palace again:

Not sure when we play this game because Palace have Conference League the week of the CC qtr finals. This is probably the toughest draw as Palace play close to their first team. The advantage will be that they likely won’t be as defensively focused playing our second string. More the fool them.

I’ve just looked up the fixture and Palace will have to play on the Tuesday v Arsenal and the Thursday against some robot called KuPS. They also have City the game before ours and a long trip to Leeds after playing the sequel to WALL-E. They actually play us in the middle of a run of 5 games in 10 days. Well done football.

Which competition do they want to win more? If I was them I would go for Europe as they haven’t won there before.

NLD:

Can we spank Spurs, please? Like an actual ‘pants down, I’m guilty, I’ll never do it again’ spanking. I’m thinking an assertive 5-0 hurting. I’m speaking this into existence. Arsenal will secure a 2-0 lead, bring on ‘mega bench’ including returning players and run riot in the last 20 minutes.

TWEETS and THOUGHTS:

This is my ‘favourite tweet from a pundit that I usually have no respect for’ award. Steve Nicol is absolutely spot on. Arsenal have a completely different level of certainty. It all goes back to Arteta’s principles, non-negotiables and standards. That is a blog all by itself that I shall be writing when we win the big one. Or two.

And no shots on target in the league because Eddie missing a header isn’t a ‘shot on target’ is a desperate media trying to crush a hugely impressive Arsenal statistic.

FINAL THOUGHT:

If you were Arsenal, would you sign Semenyo in January?

Mike McDonald

Former Highbury regular. Moved to TN, USA in ’99. Married with 3 kids. Coached in UK and US for 27 years.
Mike McDonald Soccer Academy in Morristown TN, Olympic Development coach, Regional Premier League Champion.