‘ The Odegaard Conundrum ‘ – (Positives Needs & Hopes) [NFO 0-0 ARS]

‘ The Odegaard Conundrum ‘

An Arsenal blog from a coach’s perspective

Editor’s Note: Apologies for the late delivery of this article. Gunners Town has moved to a new server and there were some hiccups in transferring. This blog has become even more relevant since Mike delivered it on Monday this week. Apologies to Mike for the delay!

I’m sitting here watching the Villa game. It’s in the 70th minute. I’ve not being able to write the same day as the game on most occasions because of life and mine being a little nuts in particular. What it does give me though is a clean perspective on the actual reality of Arsenal’s situation.

It’s important to say that what I’m about to talk about is a first world problem.

Form changes very quickly and after every matchday everything can swing and so emotions have to be checked.

Around Christmas time, I had an epiphany and was going to write about an idea that I thought could solidify the league for Arsenal. It involved Arsenal signing Antoine Semenyo. didn’t write the piece because it became obvious he was going to City.

It also involved Odegaard and Saka.

The idea was based more on Saka and Semenyo than Odegaard.

Firstly, I’ve noticed that one of Saka’s biggest superpowers has been somewhat nullified recently. His ability to cut in and hit bending back post shots has all but vanished as coaches prioritize stopping this particular threat.

I looked at it and wondered if it would be smart to try Saka in the 8/10 position that Odegaard plays, simply because MO gets the ball 10 yards further in field and isn’t double teamed. If his first touch is positive then he has the ability to shoot with his second touch. MO has really improved his ball striking to his credit but regardless of the improvement when you need ball striking and accuracy, Saka has both.

Saka would also have far more freedom as an 8/10. He would be significantly harder to mark than the winger. He would also add drive from midfield. We currently don’t have that especially when Declan Rice plays in the pockets as he did against Nottingham Forest rather than deeper and at an angle from Zubermendi, which is where he is better. I think we’ve always appreciated that Saka is one player who could play anywhere and have equal impact. This would allow Madueke to play more regularly on the right wing which I would be good with. He is more inconsistent than Saka, but has offered a very similar threat went on form. Maybe his inconsistency is because his game time is inconsistent, which is often the case if players don’t get rhythm.

The benefits of this idea would be…

a) the ability to give a player who should be your top scorer a far greater chance of being that.

b) a player driving through the midfield committing defenders.

c) he would certainly get us at least one Declan Rice free kick per game which is something that is now a rarity since the world saw the Real Madrid game.

d) Saka takes less needless touches. One of the most common Arsenal complaints is ‘Odegaard takes too many touches.’ This can often offer us the time and control that Arteta wants. It also delays opportunity. Saka’s touches have more purpose.

e) defenders are told not to foul Saka in the area. That changes if you put him in central areas and he comes across the last defender in front of goal who has no choice but to put in the challenge. More penalty kicks.

f) perhaps the biggest advantage would be putting your best player in a position where he could feel the game. He could go across the width of the field, become more involved. He’d have significantly more touches as he wouldn’t have to wait for the ball to come to him.

This idea could be trialed for 20 minutes. Then 30 minutes. Then against The Almighty Carrot in the Champions League.

If it works, then maybe it is the catalyst to the biggest season we’ve had in over 20 years.

Villa just lost. Unreal weekend.

I would assume that my idea will stay an idea and won’t become a reality.. Who knows if it’s right, but I’d be very interested to see it. Thomas Tuchel would pull what’s left of his hair out, as he already has the choice of Rodgers, Palmer, Bellingham, Eze, Foden and some others I cannot think of right now.

There is a long-term situation that will arise in the next 18 months to three years. Max Dowman will want regular opportunity. Arsenal don’t need to change everything just for him but if he fulfills what looks like a very high ceiling then he may well take over this role. Clubs have to offer pathways. Without that top talents will go somewhere else because there will be plenty of clubs that will offer what they want.

This is not an immediate concern, I understand but this can’t be ignored in the medium term, because it’s coming.

I mention this now because Saka’s positional move would change the role for the team and be easier for a player like Dowman to blend into. It would also offer up the right wing as a clearer possibility for Dowman to develop in.

g) There is a pattern with Odegaard. He often dominates home games. He often doesn’t dominate away games and can vanish. Not always but it’s becoming more often. Why is that though? As the captain of the team he should raise his game in a more difficult situation. This brings me to the ‘why.’ Why is Martin Odegaard not having the consistent influence that his talent would suggest? I would suggest that Mr. Odegaard has the World Cup on his mind. He is the captain of a team that hasn’t been to the World Cup in his lifetime and the summer is huge for all Norwegians.

He is avoiding physical confrontation more often and recently had a one on one session with the Arsenal coaches in regards to this. Getting injured will be on the top of his mind considering that it has happened twice already this season.

There is a knock on effects to this if what I am saying it’s true. He is the captain of Arsenal Football Club. We are going for four trophies, most of which none of our players have ever won. As they see him every day, they will know if he is putting in less physical effort and because he’s the captain, and he’s been selected, it will rub them the wrong way. Declan Rice seems to be getting increasingly more frustrated and I wonder if this is the source of it. A natural captain focusing on the moment rather than the actual captain who might not be fully there.

h) Beyond my Saka suggestion, Mikal Merino must be one of the most in form bench players in Europe. He also is a solution to one of our few problems. The need for a midfielder to consistently score. His overall game has improved on top of his ability inside the box. If I was him, I wouldn’t be waiting much longer before talking to the boss about that number 8/10 position.

i) Understanding that you cannot judge your current issue by four of your better games this season, but if you look at the image below, you will notice that perhaps the setup of the team is sometimes better without Odegaard.

I suppose what it comes down to is who offers us the most value and does their skill set match with the players around them?

Martin Odegard on a good day makes a great day. Not many players can dominate the tempo of a game and dictate the result and he certainly has this power, especially at home.

A gem who is about to come into his prime and hopefully will sparkle at Arsenal for many more years. I’m just not sure that he is an every game pick, especially right now.

POSITIVES:

Clean sheets:

It’s always important to see the positives as long as they exist, but not force them. Clean sheets in the last two games are very much welcome. Beyond that, we have returned to looking as defensively solid as we are capable of.

Whatever happens in May, this will be part of the story of the 25/26 season. A team that took defensive organization and desire to a brand new level. The statistic below is really quite something, especially when you compare it to the other teams

Transfer window:

Ever since the January transfer window became a thing, I have gotten excited, written blogs, and suffered the rollercoaster of emotions. The last few weeks I’ve had to remind myself that there is a transfer window open. I really appreciate my club putting us in a position where we don’t need a new player to solve the problems.

NEEDS:

Arteta:

The discussion after the game was about an unbalanced lineup.

One day, I will write a whole blog about the reactions of the modern day fan. It is a topic that interests me greatly because there are very few people that you read and listen to that come close to the truth because they feel the need to be extreme.

What happened against Forest was that Arteta did pick the wrong team and rectified it at halftime and therefore didn’t put us in the best position to win the game. At the same time much like the tweet above, the players really didn’t need Arteta to win them the game. They did plenty enough without his help.

The absolute truth of coaching is that your job is to add value. With every correct decision you give your team an extra few percent chance of being successful. You don’t ever win the game as a coach you just make it easier for your players. It can also go the other way. Your  coaching decisions can give your team less chance and your anger, ridiculous tactics, and fear that you have imparted won’t lose you the game, but will chip away at your team‘s percentage chances of winning it.

Set piece accusation:

Arsenal are so much more than set pieces. No team would ever be top of the two biggest leagues six months into the season based solely on corners and free kicks. The image below isn’t something that can be completely ignored though.

I think the best way to look at it is to ask yourself when you feel most expectant of a goal. Is it when Martinelli attempts to dribble past his defender? Is it on transition? Is it when the ball gets circulated around the top of the box? Or is it at the corner? Sometimes statistics aren’t quite the same as feelings.

For many years I have hoped that Arsenal are going to significantly improve their ability to score simple goals, and take their footballing superiority to a level where they become more ruthless and put teams away.

I would say that the biggest most frequent conundrum for modern day coaches is balance. How much should they risk going forward in order to stay solid defensively. Arsenal have conquered the latter and are undoubtedly one of the best defensive teams that we have seen in world football in quite a while. Is there a time though that they can roll the dice and lean into the team‘s biggest strength and take more risk? I think most loyal fans would say that there is.

If the opponent wants to strategize to transition against Saliba, Gabriel, Timber, Calafiori and Rice then perhaps we should let them. Looking back on the last two league games, we would’ve been better off points-wise if we would’ve lost one and won one.

PGMOL:

At the time of the penalty incident, I said that it wasn’t. I reflected later after my son told me that I’ve lost my mind and realized that my opinion was based on my narrative. I don’t think that you should ever be given a free shot from 12 yards for an incident like that. That doesn’t matter though. Mike McDonald doesn’t make the rules of football. Not only was it obvious on second look that Aina was trying to avoid a corner, but he posted this after the game mocking the situation.

I think that is really important in the grand scheme of things. It hits the PGMOL so much harder when a player breaks ranks and does this.

HOPES:

Alvarez:

This would be my guess as to who Arsenal pursue in his summer.

Schedule:

Our stadium has certainly become the fortress that it deserves to be. This does matter. It also matters as far as travel and fatigue is concerned.

SCOUT MAX:

Kennet Eichorn (Hertha Berlin):

Finding a player this imperious at the age of 16 is very rare. If you go on transfmarkt, they state that essentially 2/3 of the world’s biggest teams are chasing Kennet Eichorn. Arsenal are apparently not one of them but when you watch this, you get the feeling that you’re watching a player who will be one of the stars of the future.

FINAL THOUGHT:

I watched more football this weekend than most weekends of the season. I rolled the dice in getting up at 7:30 AM to watch Manchester United, which is against my nature. Then after church, we watched the majority of the Villa game. It wasn’t just Villa and City that looked fatigued, there were many. In a time gone by very little would’ve been made in the analysis of Arsenal drawing with Forest other than ‘the players are knackered, leave them alone.‘

I wonder what the players would say if they were honest. It sure looks like they are waiting for their legs to feel a second wind.

Mike McDonald

Former Highbury regular. Moved to TN, USA in ’99. Married with 3 kids. Coached in UK and US for 27 years.
Mike McDonald Soccer Academy in Morristown TN, Olympic Development coach, Regional Premier League Champion.