Barcelona, Arsenal, Manchester United? What is really happening with Cesc Fabregas? An Outsider looking in

I am trying to get my head around the
Cesc Fabregas rumours and rubbish but I think it’s best to run through the
various scenarios in the order of likeliness (as decided be me). 

1)
Cesc doesn’t want to leave Barcelona + Barcelona don’t want Cesc to leave =
Cesc stays at Barcelona.

Cesc has
publically said he wants to stay with Barca, that part couldn’t be more clear
as he has publically said his priority is to fight to secure a regular first-team
spot. Barcelona have been a little less firm and said that they would be guided
by Cesc on the matter.

This is not the
most solid of responses, if we take it at face value then they would have let
Cesc go if he wanted to but since he doesn’t they are happy to keep him.
Equally they have just lost Thiago Alcantara to Bayern, Xavi and Andres Iniesta
are getting older and they see Cesc as the long-term option. They spent a lot
of time (even if they got him at a bargain price) getting him to Barca so you’d
assume that two seasons would not be adequate an return on their investment. 

2)
Cesc doesn’t want to leave Barcelona + Barcelona are prepared to sell him +
Arsenal activate the release clause in his contract = Cesc to Arsenal.

Now a lot has
been made about the release clause which states Arsenal have first refusal on
Cesc at a fee of £25m should Barcelona accept a bid for him. Now… if we assume
this is the case then this would come into effect should the Catalonians decide
that they would want to sell our former skipper. It also presumably means that we
could bid £25m and if Barca wanted to sell him, then they could just sell him
straight to us, since no matter what anyone else bid they would only ever get
£25m for him as per our contract.

There are so
many ifs and buts in this scenario that it starts to get a bit amusing. Most
importantly Barcelona have to want to sell him. We then have to want to buy him
in order to activate the release clause, it is sort of moot that any other team
wants to bid and have a bid accepted because presumably if we want him, and
Barca want to sell him then contractually we get him. Finally Cesc would have
to want to come back. If Barca want to sell him you’d have to assume that he
would accept this AND we then assume he wants to come to Arsenal given his
history, not wanting to go to another English team and not wanting to go to
another Spanish team. 

3)
Cesc doesn’t want to leave Barcelona + Barcelona want to sell Cesc + Arsenal
don’t activate his release clause = Cesc is sold to the highest bidder.

This is the
horrible one really, the one we don’t want to think about because in all likelihood
it would result in Cesc going to one of our domestic rivals. Manchester United
have apparently placed a bid and the idea of Cesc going there is just
appalling. But it’s the least likely of my options because of a few things.

If we have this
much banded around release clause giving us first dibs on Cesc at a set price,
why the hell would any other team bid for him? I just can’t get my head around
it! The only way that they could hope to be successful would be if they knew
that we would not take up our option on him. It might be blind sentimentality
but I cannot understand why we would pass up on getting one of our most
celebrated midfielders, in his prime, whom Arsene Wenger nurtured and never
wanted to leave, for the bargain price of £25m. I mean personally I would pay
the money just to not have to see him at United… and we wanted sensational
names… I challenge you to name someone that would be more sensational. The
prodigal son returns, all is forgiven, we welcome a genuinely world class
player back into the fold. What can any team achieve by bidding £30m-£40m for
Fabregas other than unsettling him and Barca with the ultimate outcome of him
still joining us? 

I
STILL think that unfortunately the ultimate outcome will be that he stays put.
As I have been writing this Tito Vilanova has said Cesc is not interested in
leaving Barcelona. Maybe I am just clinging on to hope… but why the hell are
Barcelona so adverse to saying ‘Fabregas is not for sale’. It would put an end
to all the speculation, their player could stop having to defend himself, they
could stop defending their player… it would put an end to it! Yet every time
they make a statement they say that Cesc doesn’t want to leave them. It’s like
someone asking if they are going to marry their girlfriend and them giving the
response ‘well she really wants to marry me’. 

There are so
many ifs, buts and unknown quantities in these scenarios. I know it’s a long
shot that he will come back but I genuinely think there is an appetite from
Arsenal to take him should Barca be willing to sell, and frankly I can’t help
but doubt Barcelona’s resolve to keep him. The only reason I can think they are
reluctant to, given that due to the buyout they will not make any more money by
hanging on for the highest bidder, is because they don’t want to be seen to
lose face in selling him back only two years after finally getting him. 

I have
to point out that in the second and third scenario I have said ‘Cesc doesn’t
want to leave Barcelona’ because that is probably the only thing we know for
sure. In both scenarios we would have to assume that as a result of Barcelona
being willing to cash in on him he would accept he has no future with them. 

That
has really made my head hurt. 

I need
a stiff drink and a break from Twitter…

Ashley Wilson

Please Note: The above article is written by guest blogger Ashley Wilson. By publishing this article upon our site, Gunners Town does not accept any liability whatsoever as to the accuracy of the information or opinions stated herein, as they are based upon the personal opinion(s) of the writer.

Ashley Wilson