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Arsenal or Tottenham: who has had the worst season?

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Barclays Premier League standings after Matchday 37

I believe the 2018/19 Premier League season is a sign of things to come… With one match to play and so many positions still in contention -including top of the log – it is a sign of the growing competitiveness in the top European football leagues, and in particular the English League, with its vast riches.

On their day, any one of the relegation-threatened teams can take the scalp of a Top 6 club, home or away. There are no certainties – as the season run-in has proved for the 4 teams battling for the remaining two Champions League spots. Tottenham, Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester United have produced a number of shocking performances against ‘lesser’ sides in the past month: it looked like they were fighting for 6th place, rather than 3rd.

One of the most interesting statistics to be gleaned from the current table is found in the “L” column (Games Lost):

Tottenham have lost 13 games this season (six in their last ten) – that’s more than 30% of their games! Despite that, they are still likely to end above their fierce rivals, Arsenal, who lost 10 games (four in their last six). To put that in perspective, Arsenal lost 13 games in the 2017/18 season – their worst finish under Wenger – ending in 6th position. Tottenham lost 7 and ended 3rd.

Apart from the ‘expected’ losses to near rivals, Tottenham have lost to Burnley A, Southampton A, West Ham H and Bournemouth A. Arsenal have suffered defeats to Southampton A, West Ham A, Everton A, Palace H, Wolves A and Leicester A. Spurs could point to the periods where they were without their talisman, Harry Kane – but the truth is that they performed better without him! Arsenal’s injuries have seemed to have impacted them more – particularly the absence of Aaron Ramsey for most of the season seems to have had a more tangible negative impact.

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fivethirtyeight EPL predictions

Renowned statistical projections website fivethirtyeight.com predicts that the current standings will essentially be maintained after the last ten matches are played on Sunday May 12th. (Not sure how Spurs are able to end up on 72 points – there are no 2-point games! – but it is a US-based website, so…)

Of course – there is still a chance (<1%) that Arsenal could grab that coveted fourth spot – if they win their last game against Burnley A (41% chance) AND Tottenham lose to Everton H (25% chance). Oh – and there is the small matter of the 8 goal Goal Difference: not likely, but theoretically possible. If you think that you can beat the odds, then head over to Free Bets UK and claim your free bet credits – remember to bet responsibly, though!

Arsenal have another route to Champions League football next season – if they beat Valencia on Thursday, they will be in the Europa League Final – with Chelsea their likely opponents.

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fivethirtyeight.com Europa predictions

Although fivethirtyeight.com gives Arsenal a higher chance of making the Final, at this stage they predict Chelsea to be Champions of Europe’s Elite Second Division. If they are right – it means Arsenal would be resigned to playing another year of Europa League, and possibly falling behind further in their attempt to keep up with Liverpool and Manchester City.

Schadenfreudian Gooners will be happy to know that Tottenham are only given a 25% chance of beating Ajax and making it to the CL Final, and a 7% chance of actually being crowned European Champions. (Liverpool has a 69% chance of taking top honours. Caveat: fivethirtyeight.com gave Liverpool a 7% chance of beating Barcelona to make it to the Final. It seems Liverpool didn’t get that memo!)

If Arsenal can win the Europa League, thereby killing two birds with one stone: qualifying for Champions League AND winning a (European) trophy – then one might argue that their first season under Emery was a success, despite having a new manager, and a team that most agree is one of the weakest in Arsenal’s recent history.

Tottenham, however, with their shiny new stadium, their media-adored manager, and their oft-praised team, will walk away from this season wondering what their future holds, as they once again finish trophy-less, having to pre-qualify for the Champions League 2020 group stage, and with their noses barely ahead of Arsenal.

The next few days have lots to reveal.

What do you think? Leave your thoughts in the comments below.

 

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8 Responses to Arsenal or Tottenham: who has had the worst season?

  1. russell jones May 8, 2019 at 12:22 pm #

    Poorly written article , subjective and obviously written by a biased gooner. Doesn’t even do his research as he would then get some of the facts right like 4th place in Premier league doesn’t need to pre qualify as he puts it for CL. Just appears to be a rant from a middle of the table side on the south of the river.

    • Gunners Town May 8, 2019 at 6:49 pm #

      Two little fishies, dangling from a hook.

      You’re right though. I’m a biased Gooner. I f*cking hate Tottenham. (They’re sh#t.) Not a rant, though. Have you ever seen a rant? Your buddy matt had a few things to say – I won’t waste my time repeating my observations to his comment. Feel free to peruse them above…

      Oh – and what did you expect on an Arsenal supporters site?! LOL

      Thanks for visiting.

  2. matt May 8, 2019 at 12:27 pm #

    I cannot believe this is a serious story. You guys are absolutely unbelievable. For years you dominated Spurs year in and year out. To even pretend as if their a debate as to who had the better or worse year is rubbish. It’s not even close. 13 losses is the only argument I have heard that can be statistically argued. In reality the number of losses is irrelevant when in truth position is determined by total number of points. Neither team produced in domestic cup Competition and Spurs sit in the Champions League Semi-Final. A competition Arsenal wasn’t even invited to compete in this season. We have also invested 0$ into the club in the last 18 months or so and had our squad decimated with injuries. Less than 2 months ago we trailed the leaders who are on record pace by as little as 5 points. If you truly believe this is a debatable topic you are insane. This is a desperate attempt to salvage something from another miserable season in which you will once again finish in Tottenham’s rear view mirror. Try again next year.

    • Gunners Town May 8, 2019 at 6:44 pm #

      “It’s not even close. “

      Actually – with one game to play, we could end up on the same amount of points. That’s pretty close. Don’t forget, we reeled you in and overtook you at one stage.

      “… position is determined by total number of points.” – duh. (See above)

      “Spurs sit in the Champions League Semi-Final. A competition Arsenal wasn’t even invited to compete in this season.”

      Um. Yeah. So we can’t be expected to win it, can we?

      “We have also invested 0$ into the club in the last 18 months or so and had our squad decimated with injuries.”

      Welcome to upgrading your stadium. This is not our problem. And your squad performed better with those injuries, so that logic doesn’t really fly. Sorry!

      “Less than 2 months ago we trailed the leaders who are on record pace by as little as 5 points.”

      Yes, I noticed – and now you’re more than 20 points behind – same thing, year in year out. Bottlers when it really counts. Not something to gloat about.

      We have had a shocking season. on the back of a few shocking seasons. After camping out in the CL for 22 years, we have had to play in the competition you lot generally frequent. Oh – and regarding that – we’ve been in the Europa (embarrassing) for two years – and in both we have made the semi-finals. This year we could actually win it. I don’t think you guys ever managed to get that far this millennium… Correct me if I’m wrong.

      Finally – I framed the question as I did – who had the worst season, because this season, with a new manager, a pretty mediocre squad inherited from a departing manager, an absentee owner and our CEO and Technical Director leaving halfway through the season, has easily been one of the worst in Arsenal memory.

      You guys, though: are supposed to have been competing. You aren’t. This is supposed to be the Age of Tottenham, but truth is, you still haven’t actually achieved anything meaningful. Last I saw – they don’t give semi-final trophies, do they? If you win the CL – I will take my hat off to you. In fact, I’ll eat it for you.

      But hey – thanks for visiting this Arsenal page. Sorry you missed the point of the article.

    • Gunners Town May 8, 2019 at 10:24 pm #

      Wow.

      *starts sprinkling salt on hat*

  3. Bob Hope May 8, 2019 at 1:54 pm #

    Tottenham won’t have to pre-qualify for the Champions League next season if they finish 4th. Do some research fool.

    • Gunners Town May 8, 2019 at 6:26 pm #

      I put that in there to see if I could fry a couple of spuds. Seems it worked. (What are you doing browsing an Arsenal supporters site anyway?)

  4. marblehallstv May 8, 2019 at 3:47 pm #

    It’s close. And at this exact point, too many variables can happen.

    Bar a miracle, they will finish above us and feasibly could win the CL – though Liverpool surely now are favourites for it.

    If they do – and that’s a sickening thought if they do – then hands down they’ve had the better season, even if we win the EL.

    Though if we win the El and they don’t win CL, then they would have the better season.

    As for the league, Mr. Poch has done well to get them into the top four (albeit 98% of the way bar the aforementioned miracle) since he hasn’t signed many players this season. Emery has only fucked up ourselves with some bad decisions. They’ve regressed in the league, and we have improved somewhat.

    At the end of May, we can say for sure who has had the better season.

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